Upward and downward counterfactuals
Thoughts of how events could have gone better are called upward counterfactuals, and thoughts of how they could have gone worse are called downward. Neal Roese's review suggested that each direction has distinct effects on emotion and future preparation.
- Upward thoughts can produce regret, but they can also point toward improvements
- Downward thoughts can provide relief or gratitude
- Additive thoughts imagine a new action, whereas subtractive thoughts remove one
What triggers them
Kahneman and Tversky's work on the simulation heuristic suggested that events that are easy to mentally undo produce the most intense emotion, as with missing a flight by moments. A study of Olympic medalists by Medvec, Madey, and Gilovich reported that bronze medalists looked happier than silver medalists, apparently since the silver winners were focused on nearly winning gold. Later analyses of this finding have been mixed, and it may depend on the sport and the expectations of the competitor.
Help or harm
A functional view holds that counterfactuals help people prepare for similar future situations. This requires that the imagined change is controllable and that the situation may occur again. Repeated counterfactual thinking about unchangeable events has been associated with rumination and distress, including after trauma. Associations do not show the direction of influence, however, and counterfactual thoughts may be a symptom as much as a cause.
Further reading
- Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). The simulation heuristic. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press.
- Medvec, V. H., Madey, S. F., & Gilovich, T. (1995). When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69(4).
- Roese, N. J. (1997). Counterfactual thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 121(1).